Description

Leading Economist and former Wharton Professor Dr. Peter Linneman is optimistic about the U.S. economy, although not every moment. With a divided Congress, the war in Ukraine, rising interest rates, and skyrocketing oil prices amid an ongoing pandemic, Dr. Linneman shares his quarterly predictions and provides insights to help you understand what's to come. Dr. Linneman presents the most prescient analysis, and he cites that before things got so hard, nobody could have guessed in February 2020 that the GDP could still grow by 3.5%. He considers it staggering and the main point. Dr. Linneman mentions that a devastating variant of the virus can change anything, but the biggest wildcard he considers would stop the left to right upward kind of recovery is price controls. The leading economist adds that looking at the real factors matter. Over two years, real GDP, a crude measure of demand in the economy, has been up 3.5%. Industrial output, a crude measure of industrial goods capacity, is down 1% and employment, a crude measure of service sector supply down 1%, and demand's up 3.5%. Willy and Dr. Linneman cover how to bridge the gap as new government policies create an imbalance between the carbon economy and a green economy, pushing into renewables when there is still the demand for fossil fuels while exploration and refining companies are not investing anymore. Tune in to this new episode of the Walker Webcast — The Best Hour in CRE with Dr. Peter Linneman ▶️ Key Points In The Webcast: 00:00 Introduction 00:22 Willy welcomes Dr. Peter Linneman to the Walker Webcast. 03:20 Happy 55th birthday, Willy! He is optimistic about reaching his 110th, inspired by Dr. Peter Linneman's book The Great Age Reboot, coming out in September. 09:24 Linneman reports that real GDP is 3.5% higher than in February 2020, when the economy was going through the "trials of Job." 11:41 Linneman explains why a year from now, he is hopeful that interest rates will be about where they were in 2019. 17:07 Discover how to take cues from Deutsche Bank research and forecast growth in the next three years. 25:42 Linneman cites that the biggest risks to the recovery are not interest rates, it's not inflation - it's wage and price controls. 26:20 Real factors by the numbers. Over two years, real GDP has been up 3.5%. Industrial output is down 1%. And employment was down by 1%, and demand was up by 3.5%. 27:47 Willy asks Dr. Linneman to explain his point why he would never trade out 1% of GDP growth for 2% inflation. 31:02 Hear about the supply-demand imbalance with exploration companies and the call for renewable energy. 38:35 Why the baseball season and home games per city are going to have a big impact on revitalization. 45:37 See household affordability and projections. Dr. Peter Linneman is known for his unique blend of scholarly rigor and practical business insight that has earned him accolades from around the world. He has studied under multiple Nobel Prize winners, holds both a Master's and Doctorate in Economics after a distinguished academic career at both The University of Chicago and the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, and was a leading member of Wharton's faculty, serving as the Albert Sussman Professor of Real Estate, Finance, and Public Policy for 35 years. GET NOTIFIED about upcoming shows: » Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: / @walkerdunlop » See upcoming guests on the #WalkerWebcast here: https://www.walkerdunlop.com/webcasts/